Space Weather Forecast and Alerts
The official NOAA 3-day outlook, the predicted Kp index and the latest geomagnetic, solar flare and radio blackout alerts, with notes for radio amateurs.
Updated 11:43 UTC
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Observed and predicted Kp
Solid bars are observed, lighter bars are NOAA predictions. Kp 5 or more means a geomagnetic storm (G1 or above).
Highest predicted Kp per day (UTC)
| Date | Max Kp | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct | 3.7 | Unsettled |
| Fri 23 Oct | 2.3 | Quiet |
| Sat 24 Oct | 4.3 | Active |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2.3 | Quiet |
NOAA 3-day forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2026
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
00-03UT 4.00 2.33 2.33
03-06UT 3.67 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 3.33 1.00 1.33
12-15UT 2.67 1.33 3.00
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 3.67
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 4.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 4.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected early on 22
Oct due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
R1-R2 20% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 5% 1% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 24
Oct, with a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate).
Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Public domain.
Latest space weather alerts
EXTENDED WARNING Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected 2026-10-22 05:32:43 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5439 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 22 0532 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5438 Valid From: 2026 Oct 21 1616 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 22 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
ALERT Geomagnetic K-index of 5 2026-10-22 00:03:32 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 2058 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 22 0003 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 21 2359 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
WARNING Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected 2026-10-21 22:28:09 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05 Serial Number: 2271 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 21 2228 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 21 2227 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 22 0900 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
ALERT Geomagnetic K-index of 4 2026-10-21 21:30:28 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2693 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 21 2130 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 21 2059 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 Active Warning: YES Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
WARNING Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected 2026-10-21 16:17:18 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5438 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 21 1617 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 21 1616 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 22 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
ALERT Geomagnetic K-index of 4 2026-10-21 04:29:25 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2692 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 21 0429 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 21 0429 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 Active Warning: YES Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
WARNING Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected 2026-10-21 02:05:20 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5437 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 21 0205 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 21 0204 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 21 1200 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
WATCH Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted 2026-10-20 19:12:44 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 1132 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 20 1912 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 21: G1 (Minor) Oct 22: None (Below G1) Oct 23: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
SUMMARY 10cm Radio Burst 2026-10-19 09:09:16 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 930 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 19 0909 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2026 Oct 19 0858 UTC Maximum Time: 2026 Oct 19 0859 UTC End Time: 2026 Oct 19 0859 UTC Peak Flux: 430 sfu Duration: 1 minutes Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 137 sfu Comment:
WATCH Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted 2026-10-18 17:24:58 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 1131 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 18 1724 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 19: G1 (Minor) Oct 20: G1 (Minor) Oct 21: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
WATCH Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted 2026-10-17 20:14:23 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 1130 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 17 2014 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 18: None (Below G1) Oct 19: None (Below G1) Oct 20: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
ALERT Geomagnetic K-index of 4 2026-10-16 19:39:45 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2691 Issue Time: 2026 Oct 16 1939 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 16 1940 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 Active Warning: YES Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
An alert means the event is happening, a warning means it is expected, a watch means it is possible. Learn what they mean for you: radio blackouts and geomagnetic storms.
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, NASA SDO. Band conditions are estimates computed by Map For HAM and are indicative only. Methodology and credits · Data feeds · Widgets
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